India’s leading election forecasting company, Axis My India’s exit poll predicts landslide victory for Yogi Adityanath led BJP in Uttar Pradesh with 288 – 326 seats whereas Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party is likely to win over Punjab with 76-90 seats. The giant has further forecasted Bhartiya Janta Party’s rein in Uttarkhand with 36-46 seats and Manipur with 33-43 seat share respectively. Goa reflected 14-18 seats share for BJP, 15-20 for Congress, 2-5 seat share for MGP + TMC and 0-4 seats for others.
Vote share (%)
Bharatiya Janata Party represents victory in four out of five poll bound states. In Uttar Pradesh, BJP + Apna Dal + Nishad reflects 46% vote share followed by SP and its alliance at 36%, BSP at 12%, and Congress at 3%. Aam Aadmi Party led by Arvind Kejriwal showcases 41% vote share followed by Congress Party at 28% vote share and SAD and its alliance at 19%. In Uttarkhand, BJP and Congress portray a close fight with vote share being at 44% and 40% respectively. The saffron party leads with a massive vote share of 41% in Manipur leaving all other parties far behind. Goa represents neck to neck competition between BJP at 33% vote share and Congress and GFP at 32% vote share.
Five State Exit Poll Seat & Vote Share, Source: Axis My India
Commenting on the prediction, Mr. Pradeep Gupta, Chairman & Managing Director, Axis My India said: “The elections outcomes of each of these five states will be crucial in their own contexts and yet will have a national significance. Our analysis in Uttar Pradesh signifies that BJP will achieve supremacy across all socio cultural regions. Factors like Yogi Government’s performance, strong party leadership, and PM Modis persona seemed to have played a major role for the party’s expected success. However SP also showcases some inroads in Rohilkhand, Purvanchal and to some extent Awadh. In Punjab, Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party seemed to have dominated two out of three major regions namely Majha & Malwa while Congress seemed to have has influenced the vote share in Doaba. Over all the other states, results of Goa will be an interesting one to watch as it is more candidate driven than being party driven. While BJP has done well in North Goa with 37% vote share, South Goa seemed to have sided with Congress with equal amount of vote share. With smaller constituencies a margin of 1000 votes can swing results”